Letter From the Publisher
"People, Populations, and Problems: Demographics and US National Security"
By Richard E. Friedman

Demographic trends shape international security issues. The world has become urbanized within the past sixty years. Immediately after WWII less than seventeen percent of the world population lived in cities; now, one half of the world’s people are urban.

Within the next twenty years, there will be twenty-three "megacities" with populations of more than ten million. These concentrations of people – for the most part, without adequate public service resources – serve as breeding grounds for terrorism and pandemics.

Water demand is high in urban areas. However, many cities are located in water-scarce areas. Armed conflict could ignite over scarce water resources.

Massive migration creates instability in both the source and receiving countries. States with small numbers of young, unemployed males may be unable to develop and sustain military forces. A surplus of unemployed young males may provide fuel for revolutionary activity and terrorism.

Predictions regarding population trends are tricky. For example, Muslim populations in Muslim states that are in the process of modernization have declining birthrates; however, in European slums the Muslim birthrate is very high. Most Western states have declining birthrates – defined as below the 2.1 birth replacement standard. Some Muslim population states are also below the European birth replacement level: Albania, Algeria, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, and Turkey.

In Europe, the native replacement rate is low, while Muslim growth rates are high. European Muslim populations will double and account for approximately twenty percent of the European population by 2030. The issue for European states is whether their expanding Muslim populations will assimilate or seek to impose Muslim religious norms on Europe. If the latter occurs, there is the likelihood of militant Islamist terrorists dominating the European Muslim communities.

Relative population growth and decline coupled with internal population relocation from farms to urban areas have a substantial economic effect. Investment is required to create jobs and to provide the infrastructure, services, and social support systems for a stable cultural and political environment.

The US needs to focus on demographics as a major international security concern. It must also develop a comprehensive strategy that includes compiling statistics regarding population trends. We must also provide assistance to developing states as to how to manage population growth.

The US has its own domestic demographic concerns - a declining birthrate among the native population, and the economic drag of an aging population. The US senior population consumes an increasingly high percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in the form of social security and Medicaid benefits. Politically unpopular economic reforms are needed to adapt to emergent demographic trends. This requires changing current patterns of national savings and investment patterns. Moreover, the US must reduce the borrowing that results in the huge amounts of US securities in the hands of foreign states (PRC). The degree of difficulty in achieving demographic reform is demonstrated by the inability of the US Congress to enact cogent immigration legislation. The need for immigration to counterbalance the aging US population and worker deficit in the agricultural sector is obvious. Yet no remedial action has been taken or is on the horizon.

The importance of demographics in international affairs is best demonstrated by the example of Russia. Russia is awash in oil revenue and President Putin may seek to extend his time-limited term of office, which expires in 2008. Why has Russia resumed its daily nuclear armed aircraft patrols near Western states’ boundaries and over-flights and missile-firings into the Republic of Georgia? One aspect of the answer is that Russian policymakers recognize that their most urgent problem is demographics. Russia is losing 700,000 of its 146 million population annually, and its population may be reduced by one-half within the next forty years. The reason for this decline is an unhealthy population – smoking, alcohol abuse, and the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS—thus, the remedial steps taken by the government to enhance public health and increase its birthrate with the recent "procreation Friday vacation days." Perhaps Putin’s realization of the enormity of Russia’s demographic crisis is the reason for his strutting and muscle flexing on the world stage to demonstrate that Russia is a great state power. The reality is that Russia’s political stability is restricted by its declining population.

We have asked scholars and experts to provide their views regarding the implications of demography on US national security. •