Age of Disruption
by Richard E. Friedman, Publisher

Historians, from their future vantage point, may look at today’s contemporary events and brand the year 2007 and beyond as "The Age of Disruption." This would be similar to other eras in US history: the Revolutionary Period, the Civil War, Manifest Destiny, World War I, the Great Economic Depression, the Cold War, and World War II.

We may not be aware that we are living in The Age of Disruption. Americans who were living in the 1920s probably did not know that they were part of "The Flapper Age" – a phrase that was coined years later as a shorthand definition for this period.

Why wait for historians to tell us that we are living in The Age of Disruption? Why wait for the proverbial "other shoe" to drop, for another Hurricane Katrina or terrorism incident? We are experiencing the stirrings of problems confronting the US and the West that are likely to intensify in the coming years.

What are the reasons for the gloomy forecast? What can the American people do to adapt to changed circumstances? What can we do that will enable us to prosper, despite the array of problems?

The threshold issue is to consider the threat array, the probability of a disastrous event or series of events, and the magnitude and consequences of disasters should they occur. The best answer to a premise that is based on speculation about the future is to ‘wait and see’. In sum, the likelihood of a natural disaster or terrorist attack – a catastrophic incident for an individual or family - is incalculable, while the probability of direct impact for those who reside in California (earthquakes and wild fires) and the Gulf Coast (hurricanes and storm surges) is higher than the rest of the US. Thus, the appropriate answer for most Americans could be "Why worry?"

The common sense analysis is that the "Why worry?" option is not sensible for several reasons. In this context, worry is a good thing if it compels us to address the underlying problem and causes us to make a realistic cost-effectiveness calculation.

The premise of low probability, that a catastrophic incident will not affect an individual or family, is dubious. The US and the world economy depend on critical infrastructure, which includes transportation, energy, and food supply. These sectors of the US economy are highly dependent on an interdependent system of international networks. A breakdown of one network because of human error, negligence, natural disaster, or a terrorist attack will adversely affect most other networks. Examples are Chernobyl, Three-Mile Island, Hurricane Katrina, the electricity blackouts that have occurred on the East and West coasts, and 9/11.

Critical infrastructure and international networks are highly vulnerable. Experts in the field, considering various threat scenarios, conclude that a catastrophic incident would have a mega-effect on the US economy, its continuing prosperity, and would result in casualties. Even though one may seem to be insulated from adverse consequences by residing in a seemingly non-vulnerable area, the reality is that an event in Chicago would affect people in Milwaukee, and a catastrophic incident in Long Beach, CA, where seventy percent of containers are unloaded, would result in, for example, un-stocked shelves at Wal-Mart stores and widespread national unemployment.

Prudent preparation for families, schools, and businesses is the key to rapid response and restoration. However, there are psychological barriers, which include complacency and a failure to recognize that for the first 72 hours in the aftermath of a disaster, individuals, families, and business are responsible for themselves. The degree of prudent preparation is a matter of personal choice. It may be rudimentary: a plan of where to go or stay in place; how to communicate with family and where to meet; a "go-kit" consisting of a few days supply of water, food, and first aid and medical supplies.

The investment of thought, planning, and acquisition of tangible resources is minimal. However, a very low percentage of Americans are prudently prepared for a catastrophic incident. The reasons for this are straightforward. We acknowledge the problem, but we tend to procrastinate. Also, we might wish to avoid being perceived by others as foolish – "nervous Nellies." In Chicago, we have found that even persons who have internalized the disaster problem are reluctant to become disaster preparedness proselytizers and refrain from discussing this with neighbors who are not well known to them. However, this is exactly what needs to be done. Trends take time to achieve critical mass. For example, jogging, daily exercise, and non-smoking have achieved critical mass, but this occurred over the past twenty or thirty years. Regarding disasters, time is not on our side.

The theme of this issue of the National Strategy Forum Review is "The Age of Disruption." It is intended to provide NSF readers with a personal and broad context for understanding the complexities of the coming age.

We have asked friends and scholars to provide their views regarding The Age of Disruption and how the US can adapt to the array of issues and trends Americans will confront in the near and long-term.

We commend to you the publications and conferences contained in the "Emergency Preparedness" section of our website that address the constituent parts of the Age of Disruption.  These publications are the result of a partnership among the National Strategy Forum, the America Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security (www.abanet.org/natsecurity), and the McCormick Tribune Foundation (www.McCormickTribune.org). •