Iraq: What Next?

On September 18, 2007, General David Grange (Ret.), CEO of the McCormick Tribune Foundation and military analyst for CNN, addressed the National Strategy Forum on the topic of, "Iraq: What Next?" He presented his views on Iraq and future US policy options. His address was given shortly after Ambassador Ryan Crocker, US Ambassador to Iraq, and General David Petraeus, Commanding General of the Multi-National Force in Iraq, presented their reports to Congress on the situation in Iraq.

General Grange framed the lecture with a series of questions: Why is the US where it is in Iraq today? Is the war lost? Is the US continuing to waste American lives and resources? Does the US presence and current commitment reduce the likelihood of a civil war? How long will the US be in Iraq? What are US strategic interests in Iraq? Does the current US involvement in Iraq diminish the likelihood that Osama Bin Laden will be killed or captured?

"Where we are"

US strategic interests in Iraq include access to oil, a vantage point for US counterterrorism efforts in the war against Islamist extremism, and the opportunity to influence the balance of power in the region.

At the time of General Grange’s lecture, almost 4,000 US military personnel had been killed, with thousands wounded; US expenditure in Iraq had reached $2 trillion for "conflicting and limited progress"; and the Congressionally-mandated background report on Iraq that assessed major legislative initiatives such as revenue sharing, de-Baathification, and training Iraqi brigades revealed that only eight of the 18 benchmarks showed progress.

These markers, as well as reports such as the National Intelligence Estimate, Ambassador Crocker’s and General Petraeus’s testimony to Congress, and media reporting have had a significant impact on US public opinion. Declining American will and unity is a major obstacle to success in Iraq.

"A losing attitude bolsters the enemy"

General Grange emphasized that the US cannot win the war without public support. An effective strategic communications strategy is a critical means to this end. However, the US is losing the information war, at home and against extremists. "Americans are tired of the war, and tired of not winning," he said and urged the US to do a better job of "telling their story." This requires that the US enhance usage of telecommunications such as Internet and video, which are currently used by Islamist extremists to disseminate their message and sway public opinion.

But "America is not at war," he said. "Only the Army, the Marine Corps, the CIA, and a few parts of other agencies and the private sector are at war, and some of the population is at war." However, the Washington clock is driving the outcome in Iraq, he explained, and a modicum of discernible progress is needed to sustain the will of the American public.

"A mosaic of progress and problem areas"

General Grange asserted that the current "surge strategy" is showing some progress, specifically with regard to the military operations outlined by General Petraeus in his testimony. However, the US does not have a coordinated, integrated campaign plan with all of the players, including Department of Defense, Department of State, US AID, CIA contractors, and others, many of which lack sufficient resources to confront the current challenges in Iraq.

General Grange explained:

The US has not had enough trained coalition forces able to simultaneously destroy the enemy, train the Iraqi security forces, and provide security for the population. Securing the population is necessary to gain the confidence of the people, which is critical for military intelligence operations. To this end, there is increased use of provisional reconstruction teams (PRTs) composed of military, other US agencies, and contract workers (civil engineers, medical personnel, etc.) to gain the hearts and minds of the local population.

Enlisting the assistance of tribal leaders is a key example of how the military is adapting its security techniques to a local level. These efforts have decreased the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and explosively formed projectiles (EFPs). Also, more weapons caches have been found recently, and special operations forces have captured or killed many key Al Qaeda leaders. Al Qaeda has been displaced from areas throughout Iraq, mainly because of the collaborative partnerships with Sunni sheiks, but it remains a dangerous presence. However, information war media centers used by Al Qaeda have been neutralized.

"Moving forward in Iraq"

General Grange stated that measuring success in Iraq is difficult. For example, a surge in car bombs following a military operation is not an indication the operation has failed. On the contrary, the enemy often responds to successful military operations with increased attacks in an effort to regain influence with the population.

Additional regional concerns include Basra, which is currently controlled by powerful militias and is a key part of Iraq, and should become a higher priority concern for the US, General Grange explained. Also, more attention must be paid to neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Syria currently jockeying for position in anticipation of US withdrawal.

No success in the above outlined areas will be achieved without a healthy US military. Currently, the US Army and Marine Corps have borne the brunt of US commitments in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. General Grange explained that the US Army, in particular, faces a set of complex challenges. For example, the Army continues to prepare for military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere, as US troops continue to cycle out. Establishing a more manageable rotation cycle is crucial, he explained, noting that the current cycle is not sustainable past 2008 regardless of what was included in the testimony made to Congress. Executing current operations in Afghanistan and Iraq and confronting the global terrorist threat of Islamist extremists, while anticipating and preparing for unforeseen contingencies, requires the US military to become a 21st century force. This requires advances in equipment and technology, and a mindset transformation to meet the demands of irregular warfare.•

Summary written by Lauren Bean, Editor, NSFR