This year Iran is celebrating the 30^th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution that toppled the Shah and replaced him with Ayatollah Seyyed Ruhollah Khomeini. During these 30 years, Iran has been transformed from a corrupt semi-secular state, though friendly with the U.S., into a corrupt and anti-American Islamic theocracy.

The cornerstone of Khomeini’s Islamic theocratic regime has been a return to Islamic teachings and also to the belief in the eventual return of Shi’as 12^th Imam, who disappeared in a well in Samarra (in Iraq) in 840 AD. Following Khomeini’s writings and teachings, the newly formed Islamic Republic was to be ruled by a high-ranking faqih (jurist) known as the “Supreme Leader” who represented the Hidden Imam and was the true ruler of the country with other elected officials playing a lesser role. As expected, Khomeini became the first Supreme Leader. After his death was he succeeded by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khameni. It was Khomeini’s belief that the U.S., dubbed by him as the “Great Satan” because of its unwavering support of Israel (seen as the archenemy of Islam and the occupier of the holy Qods, Jerusalem), was to be pestered in any way possible. Taking American diplomats hostage in 1979 and humiliating President Carter marked the beginning of Iran’s defiance of the U.S. – a trend that persists today.

In June, 2009, Iranians will elect their next President. The winner of the election will be able to either continue Iran’s hostility toward the U.S., or start a meaningful dialogue with America’s new administration. This is an election that will have major consequences not only for Iran, but also for the U.S and the world. Since the election of Barack Obama, the Iranian rulers have made guarded and sometimes inconsistent remarks about starting a new relationship with the U.S. It appears the Iranian rulers are trying to make some adjustments in their behavior towards the new American Administration. On the American side, with the Iranian election looming so close, President Obama has taken the proper ‘wait-and-see’ attitude.

But who will be Iran’s next President? Two major candidates are vying for the job: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current president, who is the most conspicuous and wants to be elected for a second term; and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former military commander and mayor of Tehran.

In the Islamic Republic of Iran, all political elections are rigged. All candidates running for office, no matter how minor, are thoroughly screened by a committee of religious experts and vetted. Devotion to Islam and Shi’ism are the prerequisites. As an example: all candidates’ female family members are inspected (sometimes up to three generations) to ensure that they follow the strict rules of hejab and wear chadors (head covering). (Wearing a fashionable headscarf is unacceptable and the candidate will be automatically barred from running.)

Despite what the foreign media says, considering all these factors, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a potential loser in the next election. No one doubts that his driving force in life and politics is not the welfare of his compatriots, but is his devotion to the Hidden12^th Imam and to Khomeini’s teachings. With his controversial remarks about the Holocaust and his antics in the U.N.’s General Assembly (like seeing a light shinning in the hall from the missing 12^th Imam and paralyzing all the delegates), he has been an embarrassment to Iranians. Many have wished that he be stopped from leaving the country and projecting an image that does not accurately reflect Iran as a nation.

Economically, Ahmadinejad has been frivolous. He spent the equivalent of $30 million to build a spectacular mosque on top of a well in Jamkaran (close to Qom) where the Imam was reported to resurface soon. To add some significance to his belief, he held his first cabinet meeting around the well where all his ministers had sat cross-legged and then dropped his government’s handwritten agenda down the well to be read and approved by the missing Saint (surmising that during all these centuries, the Arabic –speaking Saint had mastered the Persian language). Ahmadinejad’s expensive project and his ridiculous act around the well has been the subject of many jokes in Iran.

When Iran’s economy was booming thanks to the high price of oil, Ahmadinejad squandered millions, if not billions, of dollars in Latin American, building roads, ports, dams, hospitals, mosques, etc. Now with the collapse of the global economy and the fall of oil prices, Iran, a monoeconomy with 90 percent of its revenues generated from oil, is suffering too. In the good times, Iran collected $200 billion in three years. For the last several years, Iranians have been complaining about the poor state of the economy: inflation is 24 percent with a high unemployment rate especially among the ever-increasing restive youth.

Sixty independent economists have recently warned about the potential for further deterioration of the government’s financial situation. According to them, Iran’s budget was planned according to oil prices being pegged at $60.80. But with the fall of oil prices, there is a serious deficit. To raise funds for the depleted treasury, Ahmadinejad has cancelled subsidies for water and electricity that he had granted to the poor—his main constituents. This has already diminished his popularity. Furthermore, Ahmadinejad has missed several important government meetings in the last several months. Each time, his staff has attributed his absence to “a minor illness.”

Another matter hurting the Islamic republic has been American economic sanctions. Whether the regime accepts it or not, Iranians feel the economic noose tightening. With the worldwide economic collapse, Dubai and the rest of the Emirates are not financial sanctuaries for the rich Iranians any longer. Iranian businessmen have to deal with second tier banks in China or Malaysia. Although Ahmadinejad’s government has switched the reimbursement of oil payments to the Euro, the U.S. dollar is still king in Iran. With the economic sanctions, it has been easier for Americans to track movements of dollars by the government and Iranian businessmen.

Iran’s nuclear aspirations create another chasm. No matter what the financial or diplomatic consequences, Ahmadinejad is adamant about developing a nuclear weapon. The majority of Iranians feel that Iran’s primary focus should be to improve the standard of living; they view a nuclear weapon as unnecessary. To them, Iran’s nuclear aspirations have only served to isolate Iran from the world community.

Internationally, Ahmadinejad has continued a campaign to irritate “the Great Satan” – the United States. And while he has made new alliances in Latin America, where he has elected to carry out Khomeini’s policies (and in the meantime spread Shi’ism), he has also made new adversaries. Hugo Chavez of Venezuela became his main ally in accomplishing his mission, and other Latin American countries such as Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Cuba joined later. Yet Iranians consider the Latin American countries to be too geographically distant and too inconsequential for Iran and do not approve of Ahmadinejad’s engagement of those countries.

His opponent, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, is barely known in the West. He is a serious candidate, and a short introduction is warranted. Qalibaf was born in 1961 in the holy city of Mashhad (in the northeast of Iran, close to the Afghan border). The family had a rug weaving and selling stall in Mashhad’s bazaar. (Qali in Persian means “rug” and qalibaf means “rugweaver.”) His father was a Kurd, a descendant of the warlike Kurdish tribes who in the 17^th century were forcefully made to leave their ancestral lands in the western Zagros Mountains and settle in Khorasan.

At 19, Qalibaf joined the military and served in the Iran-Iraq war (2000-2008). Because of his heroism and abilities, he was promoted to the rank of major–general. After leaving the military he was assigned to be the Chief of Police Forces. In 2005, he was elected by Tehran’s City Council to replace Ahmadinejad who was the mayor of Tehran up to that time, an assignment he was able to fulfill well.

Qalibaf’s strongest appeal to Iranians is his brilliant military service. He has added to his popularity by being an able mayor and criticizing Ahmadinejad’s squandering of government’s funds in Latin America. He has also addressed opening a dialogue with the U.S. and ending the hostilities that have isolated and weakened Iran for the last 30 years. With the genuine popularity that America and Americans have among Iranians, those comments have enhanced his popularity.

Foreigners believe Khamenei is the one who makes all the crucial decisions in Iran. That is not the case. The real power in Iran is the Sepah (Iranian Revolutionary Guard force—IRGC). The Sepah is very strong and very rich. It is a huge military-industrial complex reputed to be worth $18 billion. Its commander-in-Chief, Mohammad Ali Jafari, is without a doubt the strongest man in the country. Jafari is the real power, and he dictates what Khamenei says. The mullahs know they are in power because of military opposed the Shah. The mullahs know the military leaders can topple them with a coup if they ever decide to.

Overall, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has many important qualifications for the Iranian presidency that current President Ahmadinejad lacks: his service in the Iran-Iraq War was commendable; his ties to the powerful military are still strong; he has been a popular mayor; and his comments about a renewed dialogue with the U.S. have made him the strongest candidate for presidency.

Rami Yelda is author of A Persian Odyssey: Iran Revisited and a scholar on Iran and Middle East affairs. He is currently working on a forthcoming book.